November 18, 2024
As markets move deeper into November, the week from Monday, November 18, to Friday, November 22, 2024, brings a combination of economic reports, central bank insights, and corporate earnings that will shape investor sentiment.
As investors prepare for year-end adjustments and potential policy shifts, the focus will be on inflation, consumer trends, and economic growth across regions.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
U.S. housing and consumer data:
- Reports on housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales will provide critical insights into the impact of high interest rates on the U.S. housing market.
- Consumer sentiment and retail data will also be pivotal, revealing how spending trends are holding up under economic pressure.
Fed meeting minutes:
- The release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes will be a key midweek event.
- Investors will scrutinize the document for insights into the Fed’s inflation outlook and the possibility of future interest rate adjustments.
Energy and commodities watch:
- With geopolitical uncertainties still impacting global supply chains, oil and commodity markets will remain volatile.
- Any price movements in crude oil could influence inflation expectations and energy stock performance.
Economic Calendar outlook for the coming week of 18 November 2024 to 22 November 2024, showing some of the most notable Economic Events to come.
China retail sales beat forecasts in October while real estate slump worsens:
China on Friday reported mixed economic data, including strong growth in retail sales, signalling that the country’s recent stimulus push has already bolstered certain sectors of its flagging economy.
Retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. That was above the 3.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, and a pickup from 3.2% growth in September.
However, investment in real estate for the January to October period fell by 10.3% from a year ago, steeper than the 10.1% drop seen in the January to September period, as the country’s property slump worsens.
MARKET MOVERS
S1-S3 – Means potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 – Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
Hang Seng 50 Index:
Potential Short preference
Short positions below 19281 with targets at 19208 & 19107 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 19532 look for further upside with 19604 & 19704 as targets.
As long as 19532 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Nasdaq 100:
Potential Short preference
Short positions below 20785.64 with targets at 20601.18 & 20529.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 20960.07 look for further upside with 21032.07 & 21140.52 as targets.
The break below the support at 20785.64 triggered a bearish acceleration to the support at 20601.18.
Dow drops 200 points as postelection rally sputters, Fed Chair Powell signals caution on rate cuts
U.S. stocks slid Thursday, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled that the strength of the economy could warrant some patience with future rate cuts.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 207.33 points, or 0.47%, to close at 43,750.86.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to end at 5,949.17,
- The Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.64% to 19,107.65.
Stocks took a leg lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in Dallas the central bank didn’t need to be “in a hurry” to slash rates. The 30-stock Dow was down more than 250 points at the session low.
Crude Oil WTI:
The Short preference
Short positions below 67.49 with targets at 66.97 & 66.38 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 68.30 look for further upside with 68.72 & 69.32 as targets.
As long as 67.49 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Oil prices dip after US inventory build, IEA warning; weekly losses on tap
Oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Friday after data showed a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, with prices set for a weekly loss amid growing concerns over weak demand.
Prices were rattled by a cut in the OPEC’s demand outlook this week, while stimulus measures from top importer China largely underwhelmed. A strong dollar also weighed on oil prices.
- Brent oil futures expiring in January fell 0.4% to $72.30 a barrel
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $68.26 a barrel by 20:12 ET (01:12 GMT).
Market Instruments to look out for the coming week:
- EUR/USD
- USD/JPY
- Nasdaq100
- XAU/USD
- Crude Oil
MARKET NEWS
Dollar eyes weekly gain on slower Fed easing, inflation outlook
The dollar was headed for its best week in more than a month on Friday, buoyed by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and the view that Donald Trump’s policies could further stoke inflation when he assumes office in January.
The greenback hovered near a one-year high against a basket of currencies at 106.88, eyeing a weekly gain of 1.8%
The euro was in turn on track for its worst weekly performance in seven months with a fall of 1.75%.
Sterling traded 0.02% lower at $1.2666 and was similarly set to lose 2% for the week, its worst weekly fall since January 2023.
The yen was last 0.2% lower at 156.57 per dollar, on track for a weekly decline of 2.5%.
UK economy surprises with September contraction, grows just 0.1% in the third quarter
Gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in September, following growth of just 0.2% the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% for September.
For the third quarter as a whole, the British economy grew just 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, below the 0.2% growth expected by economists.
U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.
Gold prices steady but head for worst week since 2021 as rate cut bets recede
Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Friday but were nursing their worst weekly performance in over three years as strong U.S. inflation and less dovish signals from the Federal Reserve sparked doubts over lower interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,569.47 an ounce
Gold futures expiring in December rose 0.1% to $2,574.05 an ounce by 23:40 ET (04:40 GMT).
Gold set to lose over 4% this week
Traders were seen pricing in a 61% chance for a 25-basis point rate cut in December, down from an 85.7% chance seen on Thursday.
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