November 25, 2024
As November closes, the week from Monday, 25 November, to Friday, 29 November 2024, presents a mix of economic data, geopolitical developments, and year-end market positioning.
While the week includes a holiday in the U.S., several notable events are set to influence global markets. The coming week will likely see cautious trading due to lower liquidity and mixed signals from key economic data. The focus on consumer spending, global growth prospects, and inflation trends will drive sentiment.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
U.S. Thanksgiving Week trading:
- Shortened Trading Week: U.S. markets will close on Thursday for Thanksgiving and have an abbreviated session on Friday. Lower liquidity could increase volatility, especially in equity and commodity markets.
- Retail Sector Focus: Black Friday sales will dominate headlines as an early gauge of consumer spending and economic health ahead of the holiday season.
Central Bank updates:
- The ECB Speeches: Markets will parse comments from European Central Bank officials for insights into monetary policy amid slowing growth and persistent inflation.
- Fed Rate Speculation: While no meetings are scheduled, investors will analyze recent Fed commentary and economic data to refine their expectations for December’s meeting.
Energy markets and geopolitics:
- Crude oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and potential OPEC production shifts. Any new tensions or supply disruptions could affect energy stocks and broader inflation expectations.
Economic Calendar outlook for the coming week of 25 November 2024 to 29 November 2024, showing some of the most notable Economic Events to come.
Euro falls to lowest since 2022 as bets on ECB rate cuts surge:
- The euro fell to the lowest level in two years as traders bet the European Central Bank would have to cut interest rates aggressively to bolster the region’s economy.
- The single currency fell more than 1% to $1.0335, the weakest since November 2022, after data showed business activity in the bloc’s two biggest economies contracted more than expected. The market-implied odds of a half-point rate cut next month jumped to more than 50% from about 15% on Thursday.
CURRENCIES
S1-S3 – Means potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 – Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
Commodities market
Technical Indicator Summary showing the short-term volatility in the commodities market.
EUR/USD
Potential Short preference
Short positions below 1.03683 with targets at 1.03386 & 1.03178 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 1.04624 look for further upside with 1.04893 & 1.05360 as targets.
A break below 1.03386 would trigger a drop towards 1.03178.
Nasdaq 100
Potential Long preference
Long positions above 2725.94 with targets at 2741.79 & 2761.87 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 2693.70 look for further downside with 2682.86 & 2668.59 as targets.
The break above the resistance at 2725.94 can trigger a bullish acceleration to the resistance at 2741.79.
Crude Oil WTI
The Long preference
Long positions above 70.41 with targets at 70.70 & 71.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 69.76 look for further downside with 69.39 & 68.87 as targets
The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Oil prices rise, head for weekly gain on Russia-Ukraine tensions
- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday and were headed for a positive week as increased concerns over Russia and Ukraine saw traders attach a greater risk premium to crude.
- Supply disruptions in Norway and a brief pullback in the dollar had also supported oil prices earlier in the week, as did reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) was likely to postpone a planned production hike.
- An increased risk premium helped oil largely look past a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories.
- Brent oil futures expiring in January rose 0.4% to $74.54 a barrel,
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $70.10 a barrel by 20:44 ET (01:44 GMT).
- Both contracts traded up between 4% and 5% for the week.
Market Instruments to look out for the coming week:
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- XAU/USD
- Crude Oil
- S&P500
MARKET NEWS
Gold prices rise, set for strong weekly gains on Russia-Ukraine jitters
- Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Friday and were headed for a strong weekly gain as increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine sparked a broad rush into traditional safe havens.
- Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,688.70 an ounce.
- Gold futures expiring in December rose 0.6% to $2,690.70 an ounce by 00:25 ET (05:25 GMT).
- Precious metals platinum and silver fell slightly on Friday and were sitting on small weekly gains.
- Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,011.50 a ton.
European stocks close higher; JD Sports slumps 16% after warning on profit
- European stocks closed higher Thursday as investors focused on earnings and economic data.
- The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed 0.47% higher, extending gains toward the end of the day to snap a four-session losing streak.
- Insurance stocks led gains, up 1.64%, while telecoms dipped 0.37%.
- Nvidia reported a 94% year-on-year surge in revenue for the third quarter to $35.08 billion, it was still a consecutive slowdown from the previous three quarters, when sales rose 122%, 262%, and 265%, respectively.
Asia markets mainly rise while China stocks falter; investors assess Japan inflation, Singapore GDP data
- Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Friday, tracking a rally on Wall Street that saw the S&P log gains for a fourth straight day.
- The exceptions were Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which fell 2.2% in its last hour of trade.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 0.68% to close at 38,283.85
- South Korean blue-chip Kospi index added 0.83% to 2,501.24
- Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 eked out gains of 0.85% to close at 8,393.8.
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