November 11, 2024
In the second week of November, markets will focus on economic data releases, central bank policy outlooks, and key geopolitical factors as year-end positioning intensifies.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
U.S. inflation data (CPI):
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released midweek, providing crucial insights into inflation trends.
- Investors will scrutinize the report to gauge the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, which could impact interest-rate-sensitive sectors and bond markets.
European economic data and ECB policy outlook:
- Eurozone inflation and GDP data, along with updated commentary from the European Central Bank, will drive European markets.
- Sluggish growth or high inflation could impact policy direction and influence sentiment across global markets, especially in the energy and manufacturing sectors.
China’s retail and industrial production data:
- Chinese economic releases on retail sales and industrial production are due, offering insights into the country’s post-COVID recovery.
- Any weakness here may affect global markets, especially commodities, the A50, and HK50 indexes, as China’s economic health is crucial to global supply chains and demand.
Economic Calendar outlook for the coming week of 11 November 2024 to 15 November 2024, showing some of the most notable Economic Events to come.
Fed meeting summary: Wall Street reacts to a quarter-point rate cut:
- On Thursday, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely anticipated, moving it to a new range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
- This adjustment will modestly ease borrowing costs on credit cards, loans, and auto financing.
- The recent cut follows a larger 50-basis-point reduction in September, bringing rates down from the year’s high of 5.25% to 5.50%.
CURRENCIES
S1-S3 – Means potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 – Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
EUR/USD
Potential Long preference
Long positions above 1.07651 with targets at 1.07769 & 1.07941 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 1.07365 look for further downside with 1.07251 & 1.07118 as targets.
A support base at 1.07365 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
XAU/USD
Potential Long preference
Long positions above 2697.12 with targets at 2700.99 & 2709.78 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 2675.88 look for further downside with 2664.93 & 2656.99 as targets.
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Crude oil WTI
The Short preference
Short positions below 69.93 with targets at 69.29 & 68.91 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 70.97 look for further upside with 71.38 & 71.88 as targets.
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%.
Oil prices tick lower but head for strong weekly gains
Oil prices dipped on Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain, driven by OPEC+’s decision to delay production increases and the risk of further supply disruptions in the U.S
- At 07:25 ET (12:25 GMT), Brent oil futures fell about 1% to $74.89 a barrel
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.2% to $71.47 a barrel.
Market instruments to look out for the coming week:
- EUR/USD
- USD/JPY
- Nasdaq100
- XAU/USD
- Crude Oil
MARKET NEWS
Gold ticks lower but holds near key $2,700 level
- Gold prices eased on Friday but hovered around the $2,700 level as traders assessed the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency and its implications for the U.S. interest rate outlook.
- Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,697.19 per ounce as of 0251 GMT and was headed for a weekly loss.
- U.S. gold futures were flat at $2,704.50
- The U.S. dollar index was set for a slight weekly gain after Trump’s election victory.
Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
- The dollar took a breather on Friday, on track to cap off a wild week with a slight gain as markets weighed the impact of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House and what that would mean for the U.S. economy and its rate outlook.
- That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark
- The yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level.
- The euro fell 0.07% to $1.0795 and was headed for a 0.35% weekly fall, weighed down by a resurgent dollar and amid a political crisis in Germany, where the already awkward coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed late on Wednesday.
Oil prices fall more than 1% as Hurricane Rafael risk recedes
- Oil prices fell on Friday on receding fears over the impact of Hurricane Rafael on oil and gas infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf while investors also weighed up fresh Chinese economic stimulus.
- The benchmarks have reversed Thursday’s gains of nearly 1%, but Brent and WTI are still on track to finish 2% up over the week. Investors are also examining how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies might affect oil supply and demand.
- Hurricane Rafael, which has caused 391,214 barrels per day of U.S. crude oil production to be shut in, is forecast to weaken and move slowly away from U.S. Gulf coast oilfields in the coming days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Click here to open account and start trading.
