As we approach the latter half of August, financial markets are gearing up for another busy week. Investors will have plenty to consider as they navigate the markets.
With the summer winding down, investors will closely monitor these factors to gauge the health of the economy and the potential direction of monetary policy.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Jackson Hole symposium starts today – what Fed watchers are looking for:
Central bankers from around the world fly into Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week to attend what has become the globe’s premier economic gathering, the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Grand Teton National Park.
The marquee event is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday morning.
Investors hope he will give a clearer steer on whether he feels inflation has cooled enough to justify an interest rate cut next month.
Initial jobless claims:
New applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market
The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labour market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Core PCE price index (YoY):
The core PCE inflation gauge for the US economy remained at 2.6% in June 2024, the same as in May and above market forecasts of 2.5%.
On a monthly basis, core PCE prices rose by 0.2% in June.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell worries that a rising unemployment rate could make that first reduction in borrowing costs a big one.
Powell has pledged to be data-dependent, and there is lots of economic data before the Fed’s Sept 17-18 meeting.
Stocks on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech days.
Stock Movement during and after the Fed Chair Jerome Powell speeches at the Kanas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference.
CURRENCIES
S&P 500 index:
S1-S3 – Means potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 – Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
Crude oil inventories expectations:
The Inventory Report will be released this Wednesday, 28 August 2024.
Events since the last release of the inventory report:
Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels to 426 million barrels
Oil prices steadied in Asian trade on Friday after rebounding in the prior session amid some bargain buying but were still headed for steep weekly losses amid persistent concerns over slowing demand.
Brent oil futures expiring in October rose 0.1% to $77.26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.1% to $72.34 a barrel by 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT).
Previous Report Figures and Forecast Figures for the latest release -4.649M (Barrels of Oil)
Forecast Figures for 28 August 2024 – TBA (To be Announced) (Barrels of oil).
USD/CAD:
USD/JPY outlook: Dollar pushes to 2-week high on solid sales
U.S. crude oil rises to $73 per barrel after erasing most of 2024 gain
At the market open in London, the FTSE 100 Index climbed 0.24%
EUR/GBP is down to 0.84.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0,18% at 101.217.
Market instruments to look out for this week:
USD/CAD
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
Nasdaq100
XAU/USD
Crude oil
MARKET NEWS
Gold prices nurse tumble from record highs with Powell, rate cuts in focus:
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,495.52 an ounce,
Gold futures expiring in December rose 0.6% to $2,530.70 an ounce by 01:24 ET (05:24 GMT).
Spot prices were down slightly this week after hitting a record high of $2,531.72 an ounce.
U.S. crude oil rises to $73 per barrel after erasing most of 2024 gain:
West Texas Intermediate October contract: $73.01 per barrel, up $1.08, or 1.5%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 1.9%.
Brent October contract: $77.22 per barrel, up $1.17, or 1.54%. To date, the global benchmark has been marginally up by 0.23%.
RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.24 per gallon, more than 3 cents higher, or 1.76%. Year to date, gasoline is ahead by 6.7%.
Natural Gas’s September contract was $2.05 per thousand cubic feet, 12 cents lower, or 5.7%. Year to date, gas is down 18.3%.
FTSE 100 and Europe mixed, US stocks up as investors look to Jackson Hole:
The FTSE 100 rose about 0.1% in early trade before ending the day 0.1% lower.
In Germany, the DAX and the CAC were 0.4% higher.
The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.2%.
Over in the US, the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.3%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was just above the flat line.
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