November 4, 2024
As we enter the first full week of November, markets will be attentive to central bank insights, major economic data releases, and the ongoing earnings season.
This coming week will likely set the tone for the remainder of the year, with investors focusing on inflation trends, interest rate policy, and geopolitical developments.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
U.S. jobs data and economic indicators:
- The U.S. will release its monthly employment report, providing crucial insights into labor market conditions and wage growth.
- Strong or weak numbers could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates, adding volatility across equity and bond markets.
Central Bank Commentary:
- Following recent interest rate decisions, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to issue statements or provide commentary.
- Any signals of future rate hikes or pauses in policy adjustments will likely influence market sentiment, especially in interest-sensitive sectors.
Oil and commodity price movements:
- Geopolitical developments affecting oil-producing regions, along with updates from OPEC, will keep energy markets on edge.
- Rising or stabilizing oil prices could have implications for inflation outlooks globally, impacting sectors like transportation and consumer goods.
Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 12,000 in October versus the 113,000 expected:
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 12,000 in October, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 223,000 increase (revised from 254,000) recorded in September and missed the market expectation of 113,000 by a wide margin.
- Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1% as expected. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 4% from 3.9%.
Economic Calendar outlook for the coming week of 4 November 2024 to 8 November 2024, showing some of the most notable Economic Events to come.
CURRENCIES
S1-S3 – Means potential Support points. If market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 – Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
XAU/USD
Potential Short preference
Short positions below 2747.06 with targets at 2738.99 & 2726.88 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 2768.13 look for further upside with 2779.34 & 2789.10 as targets.
The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 2768.13
EUR/USD
Potential Long preference
Long positions above 1.08755 with targets at 1.08861 & 1.09048 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 1.08448 look for further downside with 1.08332 & 1.08094 as targets.
A break below 1.08332 would trigger a drop towards 1.08094.
Crude Oil WTI
The long preference
Long positions above 70.52 with targets at 71.06 & 71.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 69.65 look for further downside with 69.02 & 68.71 as targets.
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Crude oil soars on raised Middle East tensions; OPEC+ output decision eyed
Oil prices rose strongly Friday, paring some of the week’s losses, on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel in the coming days.
- By 08:25 ET (12.25 GMT), the U.S. crude futures traded 2.6% higher at $71.06 a barrel.
- The Brent contract climbed 2.4% to $74.59 a barrel.
Market Instruments to look out for the coming week:
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- Nasdaq100
- XAU/USD
- Crude Oil
MARKETS NEWS
The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000.
- The unemployment rate was 4.1%, which was in line with expectations.
- The BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, while hurricanes also likely held back the total.
Dollar dips as investors digest weak jobs data
- The dollar dipped after fresh data indicated a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
- On Friday, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls data showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for October, which was significantly lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It was the smallest gain since late 2020.
- The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was down 0.2% at 103.72.
- It rose 3.1% last month, the most since September 2022 and looks set to remain firm for now.
US election and Fed, BoE interest rate calls: Macro week ahead
- Next week promises to bring a busy period on the macroeconomic front as the knife-edge US election finally arrives and central banks on both sides of the Atlantic make rate calls.
- Eyes have been glued to the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump ahead of the Tuesday, November 5 election, with polls still showing a deadlock between the two.
- A 25 basis point cut is now widely expected in the US when the Fed meets, following September’s 50 basis point cut.
Click here to open account and start trading.
