As we move into the third week of September, markets are poised for significant movements driven by key economic data releases, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events.
Investors are closely watching how inflation trends, interest rate policies, and corporate earnings will shape the trajectory of global markets.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC) – 18 September 2024
The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could provide further insight into the central bank’s stance on inflation and economic growth.
Market participants will be analysing any potential signal of a pause or further rate hikes.
U.S. inflation data (CPI) – 19 September 2024
The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will offer critical data on the state of inflation in the U.S.
Recent upticks in energy prices could push inflation higher, leading to market volatility and influencing future Fed policy decisions.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Speech – 20 September 2024
ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver remarks on the Eurozone economy, likely offering insights into the ECB’s plans following its own recent rate hikes.
This could impact the Euro and European equities.
Economic Calendar outlook for the week of 16 September 2024 to 20 September 2024, showing some of the most notable Economic Events to come.
US inflation falls to 2.5% in August
US inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates gradually at its meeting next week.
The latest annual consumer price index compared with July’s 2.9 per cent pace and was marginally below the estimate of 2.6 per cent.
MARKET MOVERS
DJ30
DJ 30 inch higher as traders raise bets on bigger Fed rate cut.
S1-S3 mean potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.
R1-R3 mean potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.
Potential long preference
Long positions above 41384.18 with targets at 41481.00 & 41605.94 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 41171.78.00, look for further downside with 41074.95 & 40943.77 as targets.
EUR/USD
Euro turns bullish, closes in on key resistance
Potential long preference:
Long positions above 1.11051 with targets at 1.11210 & 1.11301 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.10831 look for further downside with 1.10758 & 1.10701 as targets.
XAU/USD
Gold price hits all-time high as Fed rate cut speculation grows
Potential long preference:
Long positions above 2582.00 with targets at 2613.00 & 2628.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 2564.00 look for further downside with 2564.830 & 2557.503 as targets.
Gold pushes to new highs as media revives debate over Fed rate cuts
Gold hits a new all-time high as US jobless claims and producer inflation data reinforce a likely Fed rate cut.
Gold hit record highs on Friday as markets debated anew whether the Fed will cut by 50 or 25 basis points in September.
The revival of the possibility of a “jumbo” 0.50% cut fuels another rally in Gold.
Market Instruments to look out for this week
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EUR/GBP
Nasdaq100
XAU/USD
DJ30
MARKET NEWS
European markets close higher after ECB cuts rates
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed 0.78% higher. All major regional bourses ended the day in the green, with Germany’s DAX closing 0.97% higher.
The European Central Bank (ECB) slashed rates again by 25 basis points on Thursday, marking its second reduction to the deposit rate this year. However, the ECB said it was not “pre-committing” to a future path for rates.
European investors are also digesting the latest consumer price index report from the U.S., which reflected a 0.2% increase in consumer prices in August. This puts the annual inflation rate at 2.5%—its lowest level since February 2021.
Dollar hits nine-month low versus yen as Fed debate reignites
The U.S. currency fell more than 0.8% to 140.645 yen, the lowest since late December, and last traded 0.7% lower at 140.8. The euro, pound and Swiss franc made gains against the dollar.
The euro was last up 0.15% at $1.1095 after rising 0.57% on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps.
Sterling also ticked up 0.15% to $1.3146, around its highest in a week.
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 5% next week after kicking off easing with a 25 basis point reduction in August.
Fed rate cut bets drive gold to all-time high
Spot gold firmed 0.4% to $2,570.07 per ounce by 0857 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,570.91 earlier.
U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $2,598.10.
The dollar slipped 0.4%, making bullion more attractive to other currency holders.
Spot silver added 0.7% to $30.13.
Palladium fell 0.2% to $1,044.14 but gained 14% this week.
