April 15, 2024
Forex Analysis: 15 April 2024 US Inflation
CURRENCIES
Overview of Market Trends: In the past week, gold prices spiked, the U.S. dollar soared, and the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs slumped.
U.S. Inflation Developments: U.S. inflation rates have risen, leading to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts. Originally anticipated rate cuts are now expected no earlier than the third quarter.
U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields: The reassessment of U.S. interest rates has resulted in a sharp increase in the U.S. dollar and multi-month highs in U.S. Treasury yields.
Gold and Silver Prices: Despite high U.S. interest rates, gold reached new all-time highs before experiencing a significant drop. Silver also displayed high volatility, peaking before falling by the end of the week.
Currency Pairs Analysis: Renewed strength in the U.S. dollar has pushed the EUR/USD and GBP/USD to five-month lows.
Key Economic Events Next Week: Important upcoming events include U.S. retail sales, UK inflation and labor data, and economic sentiment indicators from Germany and the Euro Area.
Special Mention – Apple: Apple’s stock rose sharply after announcing an update to its MacBook line with the new M3 chip, approaching a key resistance level.
STOCK MARKET:
Key Market Insights for the Week:
- Anticipation of more bank earnings including those from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.
- Netflix and United Airlines will also present their quarterly reports.
- A focus on retail sales with the March update scheduled for release on Monday.
Economic Climate Overview:
- Increased market anxiety due to persistent inflation may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Economists are now predicting the Fed to hold interest rates steady until at least fall 2024, with a potential rate cut possibly delayed until December.
Bank Earnings Reports:
- Recent earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup showed a dip in net interest income, underwhelming market expectations.
- Upcoming earnings from additional major banks will provide further insights into the impact of higher interest rates on the financial sector.
Consumer Spending Trends:
- Despite previous declines, retail sales are expected to have risen by 0.4% in March, following a rebound in February.
- Continued strong wage growth suggests consumer spending might remain robust.
Market Strategy and Expectations:
- Financial markets and strategists are closely monitoring company earnings for signs of demand resurgence and revenue growth, which are critical for sustaining the market rally.
- Earnings performance this season is deemed “critical” for market optimism, amidst a backdrop of cautious economic forecasting.
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