June 5, 2024
CURRENCIES
US Dollar Setups:
- Analyzing EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF.
- Path for a lower Dollar as economic data deteriorates.
- Focus on EUR/USD ahead of ECB rate cut.
- Dollar bulls eye lower AUD/USD amid waning risk appetite.
- Swiss Franc advances, overheating signals flash red.
A Path for a Lower USD Comes into View as Data Deteriorates:
- Notable decline in US economic data.
- GDP now forecast shows massive turnaround in Q2 growth.
- Disinflation narrative returns with April’s CPI and PCE data.
- Accumulation of weaker-than-expected data observed.
EUR/USD in Focus Ahead of the Highly Anticipated Rate Cut:
- ECB gearing up for first rate cut.
- Market reaction likely muted, attention on path of rate cuts.
- EUR/USD attempting bullish breakout, conviction lacking.
- Challenges to EUR/USD downside, key support levels.
Swiss Franc Advances at Pace but Overheating Signals Flash Red:
- USD/CHF plummets, bearish setup.
- Immediate threat from 200-Day SMA and RSI oversold territory.
- SNB Chairman dentifies weaker Franc as risk to inflation outlook.
- USD/CHF moving lower, potential entry points awaited.
Dollar Bulls Eye Lower AUD/USD as Risk Appetite Wanes, Iron Ore Prices Ease:
- AUD/USD may provide opportunities amid waning risk appetite.
- Metals struggle to find bullish momentum, iron ore prices decline.
- AUD/USD eases lower, key support levels to watch.
STOCK MARKET
US job market hits milestone on long, strange trip back to pre-pandemic normal:
- Beveridge curve: A wonky economic chart reaches pre-pandemic levels.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher waller’s insights validated.
- Job openings and unemployment rate relationship.
Not a marquee concept:
- Significance of the beveridge curve.
- Shifts during the pandemic and return to pre-crisis levels.
- Further progress on inflation and the last mile.
Job openings to unemployed:
- Economic reopening and surge in job openings.
- Impact of the health crisis on labor supply.
- Realignment between worker demand and availability.
Quits Rate:
- Pandemic’s influence on labor market dynamics.
- Historic reshuffling of the labor market.
- Stabilization of the quits rate and implications.
Unemployment rate:
- Sustainable unemployment rate for stable inflation.
- Comparison of pre-pandemic and current unemployment trends.
- Factors affecting labor market functionality.
Monthly payroll growth:
- Anticipation of May job growth data.
- Impact of population growth on job requirements.
- Sustainable job growth rates and post-pandemic realignment.
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