As the new trading week begins today, 7 October 2024, global markets will be bracing for a busy period filled with economic data, central bank commentary, and geopolitical factors. Investors will focus on key developments from major economies, as well as any market reactions to events over the weekend.
KEY INDICATORS
Global market sentiment post-US jobs report
Today’s trading will likely be influenced by the aftermath of the US non-farm payrolls report from the previous Friday (4 October 2024).
Job growth picks up in September with Nonfarm Payrolls rising 254,000.
Event results from Friday is showing a positive outlook on the US market regarding recent Employment figures, which could be a potential indicator of the direction the US economy is moving towards.
Oil price developments
Crude oil prices have been a key driver of inflation concerns globally, and today will see continued focus on the energy market.
With OPEC+ supply cuts still in place and potential geopolitical disruptions, any further rise in oil prices could stoke inflationary fears, leading to pressure on central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.
European market focus on ECB policy
European markets will begin the week with a focus on inflation and central bank policies, particularly in light of recent European Central Bank (ECB) guidance.
Any signals from ECB officials regarding potential interest rate hikes or economic support measures will be critical, as markets remain sensitive to inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.
MARKET MOVERS
EUR/USD
Possible short preference Short positions below 1.09523 with targets at 1.09269 & 1.09174 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 1.09757 look for further upside with 1.10119 & 1.10333 as targets. As long as the resistance at 1.09757 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.09269 remains high.
USD/JPY
Possible long indication Long positions above 148.666 with targets at 148.966 & 149.519 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 148.159 look for further downside with 147.525 & 146.938 as targets. USD/JPY bounces off daily low, finds support near 148.159 amid bullish USD.
USD/CAD
Possible long preference Long positions above 1.35891 with targets at 1.35957 & 1.36043 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 1.35727 look for further downside with 1.35614 & 1.35508 as targets. USD/CAD strives to break above 1.36043 as US slowdown risks ebb.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Dollar close to 7-week high after strongest week since 2022
The US dollar was just off its highest level in seven weeks today after a rally sparked by Friday’s strong US jobs data and an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
The dollar index measure against major peers was up 0.05% at 102.60.
It rose on Friday to a seven-week high at 102.69, logging more than 2% gains for the week, its biggest in two years.
The euro stood at USD 1.0970, down 0.06%.
European markets turn lower after starting the new trading week with positive momentum
European stocks started the new trading week on a positive note, buoyed by gains in Asia overnight and last Friday’s rally on Wall Street, before quickly paring gains.
European stocks looked set to continue the positive sentiment seen at the close of trade last week, with markets getting a boost from the latest US jobs report that exceeded expectations.
Nonfarm payrolls data showed the US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, ahead of the 150,000 estimated by economists polled by Dow Jones.
Gold prices decline as payrolls push bets on smaller rate cut
Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade Today and were nursing a tumble from record highs as strong US payrolls data fuelled bets on a smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to USD 2,647.64 an ounce.
Gold futures expiring in December fell slightly to USD 2,667.10 an ounce by 00:16 ET (04:16 GMT).
Platinum futures fell 0.5% to USD 997.05 an ounce.
