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    Forex market analysis: 4 September 2024

    September 4, 2024

    As we move further into the first week of September, markets were in a state of flux on Wednesday, 4 September 2024.

    Investors weighed mixed economic signals and corporate updates while adjusting their expectations for the rest of the month. Today’s trading session was marked by a blend of caution and strategic repositioning.

    KEY INDICATORS

    Energy sector gains on rising oil prices

    • The energy sector continued to perform strongly as crude oil prices surged further. Supply concerns, particularly with OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, pushed prices higher, benefiting energy stocks.
    • This trend is bolstering the sector but also raising questions about the impact of rising energy costs on inflation and consumer spending.

    European markets reflect caution

    • European markets mirrored the cautious sentiment seen in the US, with stocks generally flat or slightly lower. Persistent inflation concerns and mixed economic data from the Eurozone kept investors on edge.
    • The focus remains on how European Central Bank policy will evolve in response to these economic challenges.

    MARKET MOVERS

    USD/CAD

    USD/JPY

    Crude OIL (WTI)

    TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES

    Oil prices extend slump on likely restoration of Libyan production, OPEC+ plans to raise output

    • Oil prices extended losses on the back of Libya’s oil production coming back online and a persistent weak demand in China.
    • Global benchmark Brent slipped 0.57% to USD 73.33 a barrel.
    • US West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.65% to trade at USD 69.88 per barrel.

    Dow closes 600 points lower to begin September, S&P 500 drops 2%

    • Stocks tumbled Tuesday as technology names struggled and new economic data rekindled fears around the health of the economy.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 626.15 points, or 1.51%, to end at 40,936.93.
    • The S&P 500 slid 2.12%, closing at 5,528.93.
    • The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.26% and settled at 17,136.30.
    • All three indexes notched their worst days since the global sell-off on 5 August.

    Bank of America (BofA) sees gold prices hitting USD 3,000 in 2025

    • Since late 2023, the BofA commodities team has maintained a bullish stance on gold, projecting that the price could reach USD 3,000 per ounce by 2025.
    • With gold prices already up 21% year to date, the precious metal appears to be on track to meet this target.
    • Spot gold was priced at USD 2,498.87 per ounce by 11:11 GMT, after hitting a more than one-week low in the previous session due to a stronger dollar.
    • US gold futures edged up 0.1% to USD 2,530.70.
    • Traders currently see a 31% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s 17-18 September meeting, with a 69% chance of a quarter-point cut.

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