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    Forex market analysis: 31 January 2025

    January 31, 2025

    Gold prices are climbing as investors turn to safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions. With key inflation data and Fed signals in focus, gold’s uptrend presents both opportunities and resistance levels for traders.

    Gold prices edge higher, eyeing key inflation data

    Spot gold edged up 0.1% to USD 2,794.33 per ounce after reaching an intraday peak of USD 2,799.47. The metal is on track for its fifth straight weekly gain, advancing 1% so far this week.

    The ongoing rally is driven by investors turning to safe-haven assets amid growing concerns over trade policies, inflationary pressures, and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.

    Trump’s tariff impact on gold prices

    Gold demand surged following Donald Trump’s reaffirmation of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. These tariffs are seen as inflationary, potentially driving up consumer prices and prolonging trade disputes.

    Historically, gold has served as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, making it a preferred asset during economic uncertainty.

    Traders await crucial US inflation data

    Market attention now turns to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation gauge set for release today. The data will play a significant role in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate policy.

    On Thursday, US Q4 GDP data indicated moderate economic growth, leading traders to anticipate a gradual approach to Fed rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that future rate decisions would hinge on inflation and employment data, keeping gold traders watchful.

    Technical analysis

    Gold (XAUUSD) closed at 2,794.33, recording a 1.26% increase, with strong bullish momentum throughout the session. The price trend remains upward, supported by short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30-period) aligning in a bullish pattern.

    However, the MACD suggests weakening momentum, as histogram bars have started contracting, indicating a possible slowdown. Immediate resistance is seen at 2,799.47, the session high, while support lies near 2,744.89.

    XAUUSD pushes toward 2800, maintaining bullish momentum amid dollar weakness and safe-haven demand, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    Gold’s strength aligns with broader market trends, driven by a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields, as traders anticipate potential Fed rate cuts.

    Safe-haven demand remains robust amid geopolitical tensions and key economic data releases. A break above 2,800 could trigger further upside, while profit-taking might lead to a pullback towards the 2,760–2,745 range.

    Gold continues its strong uptrend, with fundamental and technical factors supporting further gains. However, traders should remain cautious of resistance levels that may cap further advances.

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