As the final week of November begins, Monday, 25 November 2024, will see investors focusing on key economic indicators and early signals from the holiday shopping season.
Monday’s session is expected to begin cautiously, with investors focusing on retail earnings and global inflation expectations. Sectors like retail, energy, and discretionary stocks are likely to experience the most activity as markets prepare for a pivotal week marked by Black Friday spending.
KEY INDICATORS
Market sentiment and positioning
The US markets closed later in the week for Thanksgiving, Monday could see increased activity as traders position ahead of a shortened trading schedule.
Lower liquidity throughout the week could amplify market volatility.
Global market dynamics
Eurozone Inflation Expectations: Markets will begin pricing in Thursday’s flash inflation estimates, with energy and consumer goods sectors reacting to forecasts.
Chinese Economic Signals: Investors will monitor weekend updates or unofficial economic data releases for hints about Friday’s PMI figures, which could influence commodities and Asia-focused stocks.
US consumer sentiment in focus
Early attention will be on expectations for Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Report, with investors positioning ahead of potential insights into household sentiment and spending.
With Black Friday approaching, retail sector stocks could see speculative activity as traders assess demand for the holiday shopping season.
MARKET MOVERS
EUR/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 1.05445 with targets at 1.05599 & 1.05889 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 1.04754 look for further downside with 1.04503 & 1.04195 as targets. The break above 1.05445 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.05889.
USD/JPY
Possible long indication Long positions above 154.486 with targets at 154.894 & 155.218 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 153.448 look for further downside with 153.182 & 152.600 as targets. The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Gold sheds 2% on profit taking, US Treasury Secretary news
Gold prices declined as much as 2% on Monday as investors booked profits following a five-session rally to a three-week high, while the announcement of fund manager Scott Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary tempered safe-haven buying.
Spot gold was down 1.5% at USD 2,673.30 per ounce as of 0943 GMT, declining 2% earlier in the session.
US gold futures shed 1.4% to USD 2,674.90.
Spot silver fell 1.7% to USD 30.78 per ounce.
Platinum was down 1.1% to USD 952.60.
Palladium slipped 0.4% to USD 1,005.25.
Dollar retreats from 2-year peak after Trump Treasury nomination
The dollar retreated on Monday after a stellar run as the pick for US Treasury secretary seemed to reassure the bond market about fiscal discipline, pulling yields lower and shaving some of the currency’s rate advantage.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped 6 basis points to 4.361% as President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of fund manager Scott Bessent was welcomed by the bond market as an old Wall Street hand and fiscal conservative.
The dollar index was last at 107.22, down about 1% from its two-year high of 108.090 on Friday.
The greenback dipped 0.3% versus the Japanese yen to 154.25, and further away from its recent peak of 156.76.
Oil prices steady as Russia, Iran tensions fuel supply fears
Oil prices steadied on Monday following 6% gains last week, with mounting tensions between Western powers and major oil producers Russia and Iran raising fears of supply disruptions and keeping a floor under prices.
Brent crude futures fell 0.34%, or 26 cents, to USD 74.91 a barrel by 9:31 AM GMT.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at USD 70.89 a barrel, down 35 cents, or 0.49%.
