On Tuesday, the US dollar lingered close to a seven-month low, as growing speculation suggests the Federal Reserve might start reducing interest rates as early as next month.
This outlook for possible monetary easing has impacted the broader currency markets, boosting the euro and other major currencies against the dollar.
The euro climbed to its highest point of the year, with the EUR/USD hitting USD 1.1080 after briefly reaching USD 1.108775 earlier in the session. This represents a 2.4% rise for the euro this month, marking its best monthly performance since November.
The British pound similarly traded near a one-month high at USD 1.2985, holding steady after touching USD 1.2998 in the prior session.
The Japanese yen made modest gains, trading at 146.50 per dollar, close to the near two-week high seen in the previous session. However, it remains below the seven-month high of 141.675 reached in early August.
Market participants are turning their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week. Investors are carefully tracking any hints regarding the Fed’s interest rate strategy, particularly whether a 25-basis-point (bps) or a 50-bps cut might be on the table for September.
Currently, the market perceives a 24.5% likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in September, a drop from 50% just a week ago. A 25-bps cut is now seen as more probable, with a 75.5% chance. In total, traders are pricing in 93 bps of rate cuts for the year.
The dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s performance against six major currencies, fell to 101.82 on Tuesday, its lowest point since January 2. The index has decreased by more than 2% in August, marking a second straight month of losses.
The Dollar Index has been lingering around the 101.810 level, extending the downtrend that began in early August. The Moving Averages (MAs), particularly the short-term ones (5, 10, 30), are trending downward, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. Furthermore, the MACD indicator shows the MACD line below the signal line, adding to the negative outlook.
The Moving Averages (MAs), particularly the short-term ones (5, 10, 30), are trending downward, signaling bearish momentum. The MACD indicator also shows the MACD line below the signal line, further supporting the negative sentiment.
The broader US economic outlook implies that the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts may be constrained. Robust domestic demand and indications of moderate disinflation suggest that the Federal Reserve may opt for a more cautious approach to easing monetary policy. This could prompt a reassessment of market expectations, potentially slowing the dollar’s downward trend.
If economic data continues to align with this perspective, the dollar could stabilise or even recover as traders adjust their expectations.
Key levels to monitor include support around 101.600, which, if broken, could signal further downside. On the upside, resistance near the 102.000 level may cap gains unless there is a significant shift in market sentiment or economic conditions.
In other markets, the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) slipped by 0.12% to USD 0.6725, while the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) held steady at USD 0.61135, reflecting mixed responses across different currencies.
Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. These minutes are expected to provide deeper insights into the central bank’s current stance and could influence market expectations ahead of Powell’s forthcoming speech.
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