The first Wednesday of October 2024 is set to bring a range of important economic data and developments, with markets focusing on global growth trends, central bank policies, and geopolitical issues. Midweek trading will be influenced by crucial economic reports and ongoing market reactions to key events.
KEY INDICATORS
Labour market insights
The ADP employment report will set the tone for US labour market strength ahead of the more crucial non-farm payrolls report later in the week.
Inflation watch in Europe:
Eurozone inflation data will impact expectations around the ECB’s next moves, potentially affecting the euro and European equity markets.
Manufacturing data as a global economic indicator
PMI reports from major economies will give further insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and potential global economic slowdowns.
MARKET MOVERS
XAU/USD
Possible short preference Short positions below 2647.908 with targets at 2645.151 & 2635.716 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 2663.584 look for further upside with 2668.810 & 2673.890 as targets. As long as 2663.584 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
EUR/USD
Possible short position take Short positions below 1.10341 with targets at 1.10142 & 1.10064 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 1.10754 look for further upside with 1.10821 & 1.11057 as targets. As long as the resistance at 1.10754 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.10341 remains high.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Possible long preference Long positions above 72.42 with targets at 72.95 & 73.81 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 71.33 look for further downside with 70.82 & 70.05 as targets. The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Pound to euro (GBP/EUR) subdued despite weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation
GBP/EUR was trading at around EUR 1.2002. Virtually unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.
The euro (EUR) faced resistance on Tuesday, following the publication of the Eurozone’s latest consumer price index.
The preliminary CPI figures reported inflation in the bloc cooled to just 1.8% in September. This was down from 2.2% in August and below forecasts for a more modest deceleration to 1.9%.
Oil markets not pricing in an ‘all-out war’ after Israel kills Hezbollah leader, but risks persist
Oil prices didn’t react sharply after Hezbollah confirmed that its leader was killed on Friday in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut.
Global benchmark Brent added 1.56% to USD 73.10 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate futures traded 1.09% higher at USD 68.19 per barrel.
Gold rally pauses as focus shifts to US economic data
Gold eased on Wednesday, taking a breather after rallying in the last session on an escalation in the Middle East conflict, while traders waited for more clues on US interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 2,654.37 per ounce, after jumping more than 1% on Tuesday after Iran launched missile strikes on Israel.
