As markets settle into the new year, Monday, 13 January 2025, kicks off a pivotal week marked by economic data releases, the momentum of the corporate earnings season, and shifts in global market sentiment. Investors will focus on key indicators and position themselves for the macroeconomic landscape of 2025.
KEY INDICATORS
Corporate earnings season
Big banks lead the charge: Major US financial institutions are set to report Q4 2024 earnings, offering insights into the banking sector’s performance amidst rising interest rates and economic uncertainties.
Expect heightened activity in financial stocks as markets react to earnings and forward guidance.
Global economic data highlights
US Treasury budget statement: The December report will be released, shedding light on government spending and fiscal health as policymakers navigate elevated debt levels.
Eurozone industrial production: November’s industrial output data will provide clues about the bloc’s economic resilience amid ongoing growth concerns and monetary tightening.
Energy market movements
Oil and gas markets will react to winter demand trends and any geopolitical developments, particularly with OPEC+ production policies and supply chain factors remaining in focus.
MARKET MOVERS
Nasdaq 100
Possible short preference Short positions below 20474.81 with targets at 20358.32 & 20244.35 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 20869.88 look for further upside with 21011.69 & 21188.97 as targets. The RSI calls for a drop.
The bubble in US inflation is likely to burst soon
Explosion of jobs in December
US nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 in December, up from 212,000 in November and exceeding the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 155,000.
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged in December.
US markets in the red for 2025
Markets in the US slumped on Friday after the unexpectedly strong jobs report for December was released, putting major US indexes in the red year-to-date.
Asia-Pacific stocks fell on Monday, tracking Wall Street’s losses.
Despite China posting a surprise increase in exports for December, the CSI 300 lost approximately 0.5%, extending Friday’s losses when it closed at its lowest level since September 2024.
Surprise jump in China’s exports
China’s exports in December surged by 10.7% in US dollar terms compared to a year earlier, data from China’s customs authority showed on Monday.
This was higher than the 7.3% growth expected in a Reuters poll and November’s 6.7% increase.
Imports rose by 1.0%, reversing the contraction of the previous two months. However, potential tariff hikes by the US might slow down trade.
XAU/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 2691.57 with targets at 2696.57 & 2707.86 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 2680.66 look for further downside with 2675.78 & 2670.78 as targets. Bullish potential seems intact
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Oil jumps on concern over more sanctions on Russia and Iran
Oil prices surged on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive week of gains as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from additional sanctions on Russia and Iran.
Brent crude futures gained USD 2.23, or 2.9%, to USD 79.15 a barrel, reaching the highest level in three months.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced USD 2.19, or 2.96%, to USD 76.11.
Over the three weeks to 10 January, Brent has climbed by more than 8%, while WTI has jumped over 9%.
US dollar firms as strong jobs data supports Fed easing pause
The US dollar rallied on Friday after data showed the world’s largest economy created more jobs than expected last month, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month.
The dollar rose to its highest level since July against the yen following the data, before turning lower on the day. It was last down 0.1% at 157.845 yen.
The euro, meanwhile, dropped to its lowest level since November 2022 against the greenback. The single eurozone currency was last down 0.5% at USD 1.0244, falling for a second consecutive week.
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 4.1%, compared with expectations of a 4.2% reading.
European markets lower as economic concerns persist
European markets traded lower on Monday amid ongoing jitters over the global economy.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was 0.8% lower at 9:04 AM GMT London time, with most sectors in negative territory.
Regional markets closed lower last Friday as investors reacted to the latest US jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls were up by 256,000 last month—much more than the 155,000 forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones.
US stock futures ticked lower early on Monday, while Asia-Pacific markets traded lower overnight.
