April 5, 2024
CURRENCIES:
EUR/USD and Oil Breakout Potential: Awaiting a breakout above Fibonacci resistance levels for bullish trend continuation.
Popular Strategy: Breakout trading aims to capitalize on significant price movements beyond established price boundaries.
Breakout Significance: Indicates strong buying or selling activity, hinting at a market sentiment shift and potential new or continuing trends.
Breakout Trading Essentials:
- Initiate trades post-breakout to leverage momentum.
- Place orders beyond support/resistance levels for confirmation.
- Employ stop-loss to minimize risks from false breakouts.
- Set profit targets based on technical analysis projections.
Key Breakout Observations:
- Typically accompanied by increased trading volume.
- Risk management is crucial due to the possibility of false breakouts.
- Can signify the beginning of a new trend or continuation of an ongoing one.
Current Focus: Monitoring EUR/USD and oil (WTI futures) for potential breakout opportunities.
STOCK MARKET:
March Jobs Report Overview:
- Expected to reveal a slowdown in hiring.
- Anticipated decrease in unemployment rate to 3.8%.
Publication Details:
- Reported by Josh Schafer on April 4, 2024, at 10:50 PM GMT+3.
Market Context:
- Follows two months of strong job gains, surprising Wall Street.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics to release the report at 8:30 a.m. ET, Friday.
Key Figures:
- Nonfarm payrolls anticipated at +213,000 (down from +275,000 previously).
- Unemployment rate projected to drop to 3.8% (from 3.9%).
- Monthly average hourly earnings increase expected at +0.3% (up from +0.1%).
- Annual average hourly earnings growth forecast at +4.1% (down from +4.3%).
- Average weekly hours worked predicted to remain steady at 34.3.
Economic Implications:
- The report is crucial for gauging labor market strength and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts.
- Jerome Powell highlighted the labor market’s robust yet rebalancing nature.
Recent Labor Market Data:
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and ADP report indicate a resilient labor market.
- Slight increase in job openings and hires observed in February.
Wage Growth Focus:
- Economists are closely monitoring wage growth as an indicator of potential inflation trends.
- March’s expected slowdown in wage growth aligns with a cooling but stable labor market.
- Investor Sentiment and Federal Reserve Outlook:
Market anticipates continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, influenced by employment and wage growth data.
