/analysis/jul-062020/

    JUL 06,2020

    July 6, 2020

    Market Focus

     

    Investors continue to weigh signs that global economies are on the mend against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. US payrolls data Thursday fueled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world’s biggest economy.

    Australia’s Retail Sales for May printed 16.9%, slightly above estimate of 16.3%, a big leap from previous -17.7%.  While China’s June month Caixin Services PMI grew past-49.9 expected and 55 prior to 58.4.

    Market Wrap

    Main Pairs Movement

    Due to US Independence Day, liquidity was drained out in forex market, all major pairs were traded in tight range.

    COVID-19 Data (EOD):

    Technical Analysis:

     GBPUSD (H4)

    Cable has broken its downward trend line from mid-June and bounced to challenge 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.253, but failed to advance beyond this level.  The bullish reversal may move ahead of itself, if price can retrace towards1.24 without breaching lower, then the current bullish run could be sustainable.

     

    Resistance: 1.253, 1.267, 1.2788

    Support: 1.24, 1.2268, 1.218

     

    AUDUSD (H4)

    Aussie is kept within a tight range, depressed liquidity from US Independence Day has added noise to price momentum. The near-term trend favors the bull as price sits comfortably in Bollinger’s upper region, but whether it could overcome resistance band of 0.6967 – 0.702 within the next few trading days remains questionable.

     

    Resistance: 0.6967, 0.702, 0.712

    Support: 0.6897, 0.6803, 0.6669

    XAUUSD (H4)

    Gold’s bullish bias is still intact and RSI shows price is far from overbought, which provides plenty space for the precious metal to climb. Bulls are looking over $1786 hurdle, and $1800 target remains a distinct possibility. On the flip side, failure to defend $1760 could result in a bearish reversal, which would possibly prompt some aggressive selling.

     

    Resistance: 1786, 1819, 1836

    Support: 1761, 1742, 1722

     

    Economic Data

    Currency

    Data Time (TP) Forecast

    Exposure

    (Our side)

    EUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks 18:40

     

     

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