As the third trading week of 2025 begins, Monday, 20 January 2025, will focus on key economic data releases, earnings updates, and geopolitical developments.
Being Inauguration Day in Washington, D.C., to swear in President-elect Donald J. Trump for his second term as the 47th President of the United States, the markets will weigh the latest indicators of global economic health amid evolving monetary policy narratives.
KEY INDICATORS
Inauguration Day
Today marks the day that President-elect Donald J. Trump will be sworn into office as the 47th President of the United States.
China’s GDP report: China’s Q4 2024 GDP figures will be released, providing a critical update on the world’s second-largest economy. Markets will focus on growth momentum and its implications for global trade and commodities.
Eurozone consumer confidence: Preliminary January data will offer insights into consumer sentiment within the bloc amid persistent inflationary pressures and economic challenges.
Energy and commodity markets
Crude oil and natural gas markets will react to geopolitical developments and winter demand trends.
Any news related to OPEC+ production or supply chain disruptions could lead to price volatility.
MARKET MOVERS
EUR/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 1.0323 with targets at 1.0344 & 1.0355 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 1.0301 look for further downside with 1.0287 & 1.0268 as targets. The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Dollar falls ahead of Trump’s inauguration; euro bounces from low
The US dollar slipped lower on Monday, remaining on the defensive at the start of a new week that sees Donald Trump return to the White House, with volumes affected by the US holiday.
At 9:10 AM GMT, the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower at 108.925, but still not far from the more than two-year high seen last week.
The dollar has started the new week on the back foot, having gained around 4% since the November US presidential election, as traders anticipated that Trump’s policies would be inflationary, necessitating higher interest rates for a longer period.
Volumes are likely to thin on Monday due to the US markets being closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday, and as traders await Trump’s inauguration speech later in the day.
In Europe, EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.0313 but remained near the two-year low touched last week amid concerns surrounding a trade war.
Market participants are closely watching upcoming US economic data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, for further direction.
Pivot points for various assets Pivot points showing different potential price targets based on the various technical indicators to show the range of movement.
Crude Oil WTI
Possible short preference Short positions below 76.48 with targets at 75.94 & 75.39 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 77.45 look for further upside with 77.86 & 78.53 as targets. The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Europe markets close higher; Richemont up 16% on quarterly results, boosting luxury sector
The regional Stoxx 600 index provisionally ended the day 0.93% higher, with most sectors in positive territory. Retail stocks pared earlier gains to fall 0.2%.
Global sentiment was boosted after US consumer price inflation came in just below forecasts, at 3.2% on a core basis, which excludes food and energy prices.
The headline annual reading came in line with the 2.9% forecast in a Dow Jones poll.
Gold prices edge up ahead of Trump inauguration; traders brace for volatility
Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Monday as traders cautiously awaited US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, anticipating insights into his administration’s policies and potential signals on future interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to USD 2,709.30 per ounce.
Gold futures expiring in February gained 0.1% to USD 2,750.01 an ounce by 6:13 AM GMT.
The US Dollar Index was 0.3% weaker in Asian hours on Monday, providing support to the yellow metal.
Platinum futures were unchanged at USD 965.25 an ounce.
Silver futures rose 0.4% to USD 31.25 an ounce.
Oil prices flat with tighter supply cheer offset by Trump caution
Oil prices moved in a tight range in Asian trade on Monday, as optimism over tighter supplies amid stricter US sanctions against Russia was offset by caution before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Brent oil futures expiring in March rose 0.2% to USD 80.91 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.2% to USD 77.56 a barrel by 1:21 AM GMT.
Markets were now focused squarely on Trump’s inauguration later on Monday, with the President-elect having promised increased trade tariffs on top oil importer China.
