As the final weeks of December begin, Monday, 16 December 2024, will see investors preparing for a series of economic data releases and year-end positioning.
With central bank decisions from the previous week still resonating, markets will focus on global growth signals and corporate developments. Sectors linked to global trade, manufacturing, and energy will be in the spotlight, alongside year-end positioning moves.
KEY INDICATORS
Post-Fed and ECB analysis
Following last week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings, traders will analyse the market impact of policy decisions and updated economic projections. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as technology and financials, are likely to experience continued activity.
Economic data highlights
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: December’s reading will offer early insights into industrial activity and business sentiment within the manufacturing sector.
Global Trade Updates: Markets will monitor export and import data from key economies, particularly China, to assess global demand and supply chain conditions.
Energy markets in focus
Crude oil prices may remain volatile as markets evaluate OPEC+ production updates and seasonal demand trends. Energy stocks could attract increased interest as winter demand peaks.
Technical Indicators that show the potential daily market movement on a variety of markets that can shape the direction for the week based on the results and announcements of last weeks FED and ECB meetings as well as the highly anticipated economic data.
MARKET MOVERS
Nasdaq 100
Possible long preference Long positions above 21916.84 with targets at 21993.87 & 22104.01 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 21797.37 look for further downside with 21708.58 & 21640.78 as targets. The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%
The bubble in US inflation is likely to burst soon.
US inflation has bubbled up in recent months, a worrisome trend, but the bubble could pop by next spring.
The consumer price index, the best-known measure of US inflation, climbed to 2.7% in the 12 months to November, up from a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.4% just two months earlier.
Wholesale prices have also risen, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE index, is projected to increase to an annual rate of 2.6% in November, compared to 2.1% a few months ago.
In short, inflation is moving further away from the Fed’s long-term goal of 2%.
Despite the acceleration in price increases during the autumn, three key drivers of inflation are expected to moderate in the coming months: housing costs, service prices, and labour expenses.
The actual result on US nonfarm payrolls in November was 227 thousand, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 202 thousand and the previous reading of 36 thousand.
Historical quotes for the Nasdaq 100, showing its movement on weekly basis to provide a potential outlook for the end of year.
XAU/USD
Possible short preference Short positions below 2650.34 with targets at 2643.71 & 2634.99 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 2665.15 look for further upside with 2672.82 & 2683.28 as targets. As long as the resistance at 2665.15 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 2643.71 remains high.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Dollar hovers near 3-week high before Fed
The US dollar hovered close to a three-week peak against major peers on Monday amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week but signal a measured pace of easing for 2025.
The US dollar index, which tracks the currency against the euro, sterling, yen, and three other top rivals, was steady at 106.86 as of 0:53 AM GMT, after rising to 107.18 on Friday for the first time since 26 November.
The US currency added 0.1% to 153.87 yen and earlier touched 153.91, the highest since 26 November.
Sterling rose 0.18% to USD 1.26315, recovering from USD 1.26075 on Friday, its lowest point since 27 November.
The euro edged up 0.12% to USD 1.05155 after dipping to USD 1.045375 at the end of last week, its weakest level since 26 November.
Gold edges higher with spotlight on Fed meeting
Gold prices inched higher on Monday as investors anticipated a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, with focus on the central bank’s outlook for rate cuts in 2025.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to USD 2,652.07 per ounce as of 1:55 AM GMT.
US gold futures slipped 0.2% to USD 2,670.90.
Investors view it as almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its 17-18 December meeting. Markets predict a 93.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut but have priced in only an 18% chance of another reduction in January.
Oil prices inch lower ahead of Fed meeting, investors assess mixed China data
Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Monday as markets remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week, while investors assessed a barrage of Chinese economic data for further cues on demand.
Brent oil futures, expiring in February, fell 0.3% to USD 74.28 a barrel.
Crude oil WTI futures dropped 0.4% to USD 70.56 a barrel by 1:35 AM GMT.
Oil remained under pressure from concerns over sluggish demand. Markets were also cautious ahead of the Fed meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to trim rates by 25 basis points but signal a slower pace of cuts for 2025.
