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    Forex market analysis: 29 November 2024

    November 29, 2024

    Oil prices saw small gains in the latest session but ended the week lower overall, as traders kept an eye on key global events. Tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s actions in Ukraine added uncertainty, while OPEC+ postponed its policy meeting, leaving the market waiting for updates on production cuts. Investors are also watching Iran’s latest moves, which could impact oil supply in the coming months.

    Oil prices edge higher but face weekly losses

    By 0516 GMT, Brent crude futures saw a modest rise of 10 cents (0.1%), reaching USD 73.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 45 cents (0.7%) to USD 69.13 per barrel compared to the previous session’s close.

    Brent and WTI prices show a slight recovery on Friday, but still post weekly losses, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    Despite these slight gains, both benchmarks ended the week lower, with Brent declining 2.4% and WTI falling by 2.9%. Trading activity remained muted due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, which saw US financial markets closed on Thursday.

    Geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns

    Tensions in the Middle East stayed at the forefront as Israel and Hezbollah accused each other of breaching a ceasefire agreement brokered earlier in the week.

    Although the ceasefire initially reduced fears of major supply disruptions in the region, the oil market remains cautious.

    To date, crude supplies from the Middle East have largely avoided any significant impact despite ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

    OPEC+ postpones policy meeting

    Oil prices were further supported by news from OPEC+. The alliance, comprising key producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, rescheduled its policy meeting from 1 December to 5 December.

    This delay offers investors additional time to evaluate potential outcomes, with expectations centred on the group extending its current production cuts.

    Black Sea and Iranian tensions add to risks

    Developments in Ukraine added another layer of uncertainty, with Russia carrying out airstrikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Analysts cautioned that any retaliatory measures could affect Russian oil exports.

    Meanwhile, Iran announced plans to install over 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its nuclear facilities, heightening tensions with Western powers.

    According to Goldman Sachs, tighter sanctions on Iranian oil could result in a supply decrease of up to 1 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025.

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