Midweek on Wednesday, 27 November 2024, markets will focus on key US economic data releases and global developments ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. With thinner liquidity expected, notable events could lead to amplified volatility.
Wednesday’s session will likely see active trading as investors react to critical US economic data ahead of Thursday’s market closure.
KEY INDICATORS
Black Friday speculation
Retail stocks could see volatility as traders position ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, widely viewed as critical indicators of consumer demand during the holiday season.
Global market movements
Eurozone Economic Confidence: Eurostat will release business and consumer confidence figures, providing insights into regional sentiment amid inflationary pressures.
China’s Recovery Signals: Investors will assess market reactions to upcoming Chinese PMI data later in the week, with commodities and Asian markets reacting to any hints of economic slowdown or stimulus.
US economic data in focus
Durable Goods Orders: October’s durable goods data will offer insights into business investment trends and economic resilience amid higher interest rates.
Personal Income and Spending: Key data on consumer income and expenditures for October will highlight spending strength ahead of the holiday shopping season, influencing retail and consumer discretionary stocks.
Core PCE Price Index: As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, this reading will be scrutinised for signs of easing or persistent inflation, shaping rate expectations.
MARKET MOVERS
Crude Oil WTI
Possible short preference Short positions below 68.73 with targets at 68.59 & 68.22 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 69.22 look for further upside with 69.67 & 70.41 as targets. As long as 69.22 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Large surprise crude draw boosts oil prices
Crude oil inventories in the United fell by 5.935 million barrels for the week ending 15 November, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a smaller build of 250,000 barrels.
For the week prior, the API reported a 4.753-barrel build in crude inventories.
On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 1.2 million barrels as of 22 November.
SPR inventories are now at 390.4 million barrels, a figure that is about 43 million above its multi-decade low last summer, yet still 245 million down from when President Biden took office.
At 3:34 PM ET, Brent crude was trading down USD 0.41 (-0.56%) on the day at USD 72.60—down roughly USD 0.80 per barrel compared to last Tuesday.
The US benchmark WTI was also trading down on the day by USD 0.37 (-0.54%) at USD 68.57—down USD 1 per barrel from last Tuesday.
Crude oil inventories weekly change since its sharp decline in 2020
XAU/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 2664.60 with targets at 2685.34 & 2705.55 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 2638.85 look for further downside with 2627.40 & 2619.89 as targets. The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Gold rebounds as dollar weakens ahead of key US inflation data
Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday, after hitting a more than one-week low in the previous session, as the dollar weakened, while traders awaited key inflation data to gain insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential path for rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 2,649.14 per ounce, as of 9:19 AM GMT.
US gold futures rose nearly 1.1% to USD 2,649.20.
The dollar index slipped 0.4%, boosting gold’s appeal for holders of other currencies.
Spot silver rose 0.3% to USD 30.52 per ounce,
Platinum added 0.4% to USD 931.20.
Palladium was up 1% at USD 987.40.
Dollar drops as markets weigh Trump tariff vow, yen jumps
The US dollar fell to a one-week low against its major peers on Wednesday as investors grew cautious about President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff pledges while rebalancing their portfolios before the end of the month.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, was last down 0.35% at 106.53, after hitting 106.33, its lowest since 20 November.
The yen outperformed, lifted by growing bets for a December rate hike in Japan, and position adjustments. It rose 0.9% versus the dollar to 151.42 its highest level since 6 November.
The euro was up 0.20% to USD 1.0510.
Sterling rose 0.15% versus the greenback to USD 1.2590.
European markets subdued amid tariff threat; Aston Martin shares fall 4% after profit warning
European markets trade lower Wednesday as investors continued to assess the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to hike tariffs.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index traded 0.2% lower by mid-morning with most sectors in negative territory.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday, following gains on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach new intraday and closing records.
