Forex market analysis: 13 November 2024

November 13, 2024

Midweek on Wednesday, markets will be heavily focused on inflation data, economic indicators, and key corporate reports that could shape investor sentiment and influence central bank policy expectations.
With CPI data as a focal point, Wednesday could see significant volatility across equity and bond markets. Investors are likely to react quickly to inflation readings and retail earnings results, shaping market sentiment and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

KEY INDICATORS

Retail and Industrial Production Data of China

Chinese economic data, particularly retail sales and industrial production figures are due, which will be closely monitored by investors for signs of recovery or potential slowdown.
Weak numbers could impact Asian markets, the A50 and HK50 indexes, and commodity markets tied to China’s economy, like metals and energy.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report

The highlight of the day will be the U.S. CPI report for October, providing critical insights into inflation trends.
This data release is expected to drive market reactions, especially if there are surprises in core or headline inflation numbers, which could impact interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials.

Retail Earnings and Consumer Health

Major retail companies are expected to report Q3 earnings, offering insights into consumer demand and spending habits.
These results will give a preview of the holiday shopping season and reflect how well consumers are handling inflation and high-interest rates, affecting stocks in the retail and consumer sectors.

Technical Indicators for the Commodities Sector

Technical Indicators on the commodities market that could be impacted today by the events that are scheduled to come.

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

Possible Short Preference
Short positions below 1.06096 with targets at 1.05962 & 1.05797 in extension.
Alternative Scenario
Above 1.06493 look for further upside with 1.06627 & 1.06853 as targets.

As long as the resistance at 1.06627 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.06096 remains high.

WTI Crude Oil

Possible Long Indication
Long positions above 68.38 with targets at 68.72 & 69.08 in extension.
Alternative Scenario
Below 67.72 look for further downside with 67.14 & 66.74 as targets.

The break above 68.38 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 69.08.

XAU/USD

Possible Short Preference
Short positions below 2604.18 with targets at 2597.02 & 2589.86 in extension.
Alternative Scenario
Above 2617.77 look for further upside with 2625.18 & 2643.95 as targets.

As long as the resistance at 2625.18 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 2604.18 remains high.

TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES

Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts

• Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers.
• A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around 40% erasure off current crude prices.
• However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one

Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations

• The consumer price index increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations.
• Core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts.
• Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move.
• Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago.

European stocks slip slightly ahead of key US consumer inflation data

• European stock markets slipped slightly Wednesday, with investors focusing on upcoming US inflation data as well as digesting more quarterly corporate earnings.
• At 07:15 ET (12:15 GMT), the DAX index in Germany traded 0.3% lower
• The CAC 40 in France fell 0.2%
• The FTSE 100 in the U.K. slipped 0.1%.
• This CPI reading is expected to show that annual consumer inflation rose to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% the prior month, while the widely-watched annual ‘core’ number, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen remaining at 3.3%.

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