Kicking off the first full week of November, markets on Monday, 4 November 2024, will be highly attuned to economic signals, central bank guidance, and ongoing earnings reports.
Additionally, all eyes will be on the start of the US elections on Tuesday, 5 November.
KEY INDICATORS
US jobs report reaction
Following Friday’s jobs report, investors will begin the week analysing labour market data, including employment growth, wage inflation, and unemployment rates.
Strong numbers could prompt renewed interest rate hike speculation, while weaker data might shift sentiment toward a more dovish Fed outlook.
China’s trade data and global impact
China is set to release trade data early in the week, providing insights into export strength and domestic demand.
Any signs of weakness could impact Asian markets, especially the A50 and HK50 indexes, as well as commodities like oil and metals that are sensitive to Chinese economic performance.
European markets and economic sentiment
European markets will open on Monday with a focus on upcoming industrial production data and ECB commentary.
Eurozone economic data will play a significant role in shaping investor sentiment, especially as high inflation and stagnant growth weigh on the region.
MARKET MOVERS
Nasdaq 100
Possible long preference Long positions above 20383.29 with targets at 20225.00 & 20125.50 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 19955.15 look for further downside with 19887.31 & 19774.25 as targets. The next resistances are at 20125.50 and then at 20225.00.
The Nasdaq Composite rose to a record high on Friday, driven by gains in large-cap technology stocks.
The S&P 500 slipped slightly by 0.03% to finish at 5,808.12.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 259.96 points, or 0.61%, ending the session at 42,114.40.
Investor anticipation of upcoming earnings from major tech companies fuelled the rally, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) rising 0.8%, and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) also posting gains.
Despite the Nasdaq’s seventh consecutive weekly gain, advancing nearly 0.2%, both the S&P 500 and the Dow saw their six-week winning streaks come to an end. The S&P 500 was down nearly 1% for the week, while the Dow declined 2.7%.
XAU/USD
Possible short indication Short positions below 2733.12 with targets at 2727.17 & 2717.89 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 2743.31 look for further upside with 2750.25 & 2756.29 as targets. As long as 2743.31 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
DJ30
Possible long preference Long positions above 42238.60 with targets at 42357.26 & 42492.17 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 42031.24 look for further downside with 41947.55 & 41813.90 as targets. The RSI is mixed to bullish.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Dollar ticks lower as US election, likely Fed rate cut loom
The dollar slid on Monday as investors braced for a potential pivot this week for the global economy as the United States chooses a new leader, and as it likely cuts interest rates again with major implications for bond yields.
The euro extended an early climb to be up 0.5% at USD 1.0891 and looked set to test resistance around USD 1.0905.
The dollar fell 0.6% on the yen to 152.60.
The dollar index eased 0.1% to 103.80.
US Treasury yields dropped 5 basis points (bps), retracing some of Friday’s surge.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.
Oil gains more than 2% after OPEC+ delays output hike
Brent futures were up USD 1.81 per barrel, or 2.5%, to USD 74.91 a barrel at 9:12 AM GMT.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was up USD 1.86 a barrel, or 2.7%, to USD 71.35.
On Sunday, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December
The grouping had been due to increase output by 180,000 bpd from December.
European markets rise as traders gear up for US election
European markets were higher on Monday after a lacklustre start to the day with all eyes on the US presidential election due to take place on Tuesday.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was last 0.25% higher at 11:00 AM GMT, with regional bourses and sectors widely trading higher.
