June 3, 2024
CURRENCIES
Key Events and Predictions:
- ECB Rate Decision:
- ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
- Possible timing of the next cut: Markets suggest September 12th or more likely October 17th.
- Importance of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s signals on future cuts.
- ECB post-decision press conference to be closely monitored.
- US Jobs Data:
- US jobs week concludes with NFPs on Friday.
- Prior releases include JOLTS, ADP, and initial jobless claims.
- Market’s view on US rate cuts pushed back due to high inflation.
- Any weakening in the US job market may prompt re-pricing of US interest rate cuts.
Market Movements and Technical Analysis:
- US Dollar (USD):
- USD under pressure, nearing a two-month low.
- USD index is testing the 200-day simple moving average.
- A confirmed break lower could see USD trade below 104.00.
- Gold:
- Gold is vulnerable to a move lower.
- Rise in US Treasury yields influencing gold prices.
- Target level: $2,280/oz.
- Friday’s NFPs will be critical for gold’s future performance.
- Nasdaq 100:
- Index turned lower, affected by performance in Magnificent Seven members.
- Pullback from a sharp early sell-off.
- Friday’s price action will be crucial for potential recovery.
- Index remains vulnerable due to its concentration in a few mega-cap companies.
STOCK MARKET
Key Market Indices:
- Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Near flat over the past five trading sessions.
- S&P 500 (GSPC): Rose less than 0.2%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down nearly 1%.
Market Performance in May:
- Stocks stumbled at the end of May.
- Investor enthusiasm for AI paused.
- Concerns over Federal Reserve holding interest rates higher for longer.
Upcoming Labour Market Data:
May jobs report expected:
- Forecast: 185,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added.
- Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 3.9%.
- April Data: 175,000 jobs added, unemployment at 3.9%.
Inflation Insights:
- PCE Index Update:
- April reading showed a 0.2% increase from the prior month.
- Lowest monthly increase in 2024.
- Economists noted it as better news on inflation compared to Q1.
- Investors’ interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged.
- Federal Reserve Outlook:
- Officials require “greater confidence” in inflation’s decline before cutting rates.
